Free PDF 8011 - Authoritative Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Reliable Test Cram
Free PDF 8011 - Authoritative Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Reliable Test Cram
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PRMIA Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Sample Questions (Q272-Q277):
NEW QUESTION # 272
Which of the following credit risk models considers debt as including a put option on the firm's assets to assess credit risk?
- A. The contingent claims approach
- B. The CreditMetrics approach
- C. CreditPortfolio View
- D. The actuarial approach
Answer: A
Explanation:
The correct answer is Choice 'c'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:
1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.
2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.
3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.
4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.
5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).
NEW QUESTION # 273
If the full notional value of a debt portfolio is $100m, its expected value in a year is $85m, and the worst value of the portfolio in one year's time at 99% confidence level is $60m, then what is the credit VaR?
- A. $15m
- B. $25m
- C. $40m
- D. $60m
Answer: B
Explanation:
Credit VaR is the difference between the expected value of the portfolio and the value of the portfolio at the given confidence level. Therefore the credit VaR is $85m - $ 60m = $25m. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
Note that economic capital and credit VaR are identical at a risk horizon of one year. Therefore if the question asks for economic capital, the answer would be the same.
[Again, an alternative way to look at this is to consider the explanation given in III.B.6.2.2: Credit Var = Q(L)
- EL where Q(L) is the total loss at a given confidence interval, and EL is the expected loss. In this case Q(L)
- $100-$60 = $40, and EL = $100-$85=$15. Therefore Credit VaR = $40-$15=$25.]
NEW QUESTION # 274
There are three bonds in a diversified bond portfolio, whose default probabilities are independent of each other and equal to 1%, 2% and 3% respectively over a 1 year time horizon. Calculate the probability that none of the three bonds will default.
- A. 0.11%
- B. 94%
- C. 2%
- D. 0.0006%
Answer: B
Explanation:
The probability that only none of the three bonds will default is equal to the probability of all surviving. Since default correlation is zero, we can simply multiply the probabilities of survival. Therefore the correct answer is 94% = (1 - 1%) * (1 - 2%) * (1 - 3%)
NEW QUESTION # 275
An equity manager holds a portfolio valued at $10m which has a beta of 1.1. He believes the market may see a dip in the coming weeks and wishes to eliminate his market exposure temporarily. Market index futures are available and the current futures notional on these is $50,000 per contract. Which of the following represents the best strategy for the manager to hedge his risk according to his views?
- A. Sell 220 futures contracts
- B. Buy 220 futures contracts
- C. Sell 200 futures contracts
- D. Liquidate his portfolio as soon as possible
Answer: A
Explanation:
The number of futures contracts to sell are equal to $10m x 1.1/$50,000 = 220. Liquidating his portfolio would reduce the beta to zero, but would also get rid of the bets he wants to play on. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
(Note that futures and spot prices generally move together allowing futures positions to be used for hedging the risk against movement in spot prices. However there is a basis risk between spot and futures, therefore the a perfect hedge is never possible with futures. If interest rates move a great deal, spot and futures prices may diverge. Of course, this risk is generally quite low but may become amplified with large leveraged portfolios.
Just something to be aware of.)
NEW QUESTION # 276
A corporate bond has a cumulative probability of default equal to 20% in the first year, and 45% in the second year. What is the monthly marginal probability of default for the bond in the second year, conditional on there being no default in the first year?
- A. 2.60%
- B. 31.25%
- C. 15.00%
- D. 3.07%
Answer: D
Explanation:
Note that marginal probabilities of default are the probabilities for default for a given period, conditional on survival till the end of the previous period. Cumulative probabilities of default are probabilities of default by a point in time, regardless of when the default occurs. If the marginal probabilities of default for periods 1, 2... n are p1, p2...pn, then cumulative probability of default can be calculated as Cn = 1 - (1 - p1)(1-p2)...(1-pn).
For this question, we can calculate the marginal probability of default for year 2 by solving the equation [1 - (1 - 20%)(1 - P2) = 45%] for P2. Solving, we get the marginal probability of default during year 2 as 31.25%.
Since this is the annual marginal probability of default, we will need to convert it to a monthly number, which we can do by solving the following equation where M1 is the monthly marginal probability of default.
1 - 31.25% = (1 - M1)